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Over 18 million people died because of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) between 2020 and 2021, more than three times the reported Covid deaths, according to a new estimate published in The Lancet. The estimate suggests that India had the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to Covid, followed by the US, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, and Pakistan. South Asia, North Africa and the Middle East, and eastern Europe were the regions with the largest number of excess deaths due to Covid-19.
The study assessed excess mortality for 12 Indian states using data from the civil registration system and found that India had an estimated 152.5 excess deaths per 100,000 people over the two-year period, much higher than its reported Covid-19 mortality rate of 18·3 per 100,000 over the same period.
Uttarakhand, Manipur, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Karnataka had excess mortality rates higher than 200 per 100 000, a level only exceeded by 50 other countries in the world. On the other hand, states like Arunachal Pradesh, Telangana, Sikkim, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Goa had excess mortality rates lower than the global average.
“Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra had excess deaths higher than South Africa…with South Africa ranking tenth among all countries,” the report said.
| Reported Covid deaths | Reported Covid mortality rate | Estimated excess deaths | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andhra Pradesh | 14,500 | 14.1 | 194 000 (170 000 to 211 000) |
| Arunachal Pradesh | 282 | 8.9 | 1790 (968 to 2400) |
| Assam | 6,160 | 9.1 | 119 000 (96 200 to 137 000) |
| Bihar | 12,100 | 5.2 | 323 000 (257 000 to 388 000) |
| Chhattisgarh | 13,600 | 22.3 | 150 000 (132 000 to 167 000) |
| Delhi | 25,100 | 65.6 | 61 300 (41 600 to 77 100) |
| Goa | 3,520 | 124.6 | 3400 (1550 to 4960) |
| Gujarat | 10,100 | 7.7 | 131 000 (103 000 to 149 000) |
| Haryana | 10,100 | 18.1 | 132 000 (116 000 to 146 000) |
| Himachal Pradesh | 3,860 | 27.1 | 33,600 (26 500 to 39 200) |
| Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh | 4,750 | 17.7 | 41,600 (29 400 to 48 300) |
| Jharkhand | 5,140 | 7.1 | 82,700 (61 300 to 99 600) |
| Karnataka | 38,300 | 28.7 | 284 000 (223 000 to 327 000) |
| Kerala | 58,500 | 84.3 | 114 000 (90 700 to 133 000) |
| Madhya Pradesh | 10,500 | 6.2 | 223 000 (188 000 to 253 000) |
| Maharashtra | 142,000 | 59.6 | 616 000 (484 000 to 736 000) |
| Manipur | 2,000 | 29.8 | 17 700 (13 900 to 21 300) |
| Meghalaya | 1,480 | 23.1 | 8910 (6620 to 11 100) |
| Mizoram | 543 | 22.9 | 2950 (2020 to 3700) |
| Nagaland | 711 | 22.7 | 5370 (3430 to 7380) |
| Odisha | 8,510 | 9.5 | 5130 000 (108 000 to 148 000) |
| Punjab | 16,600 | 28.0 | 135 000 (98 600 to 154 000) |
| Rajasthan | 8,960 | 5.7 | 135 000 (97 600 to 162 000) |
| Sikkim | 409 | 34.5 | 992 (641 to 1260) |
| Tamil Nadu | 36,800 | 24.0 | 260 000 (199 000 to 301 000) |
| Telangana | 4,030 | 5.2 | 55 400 (43 300 to 65 400) |
| Tripura | 826 | 11.0 | 9260 (6780 to 10 500) |
| Uttar Pradesh | 22,900 | 4.8 | 517 000 (418 000 to 602 000) |
| Uttarakhand | 7,420 | 32.5 | 65 000 (51 200 to 75 700) |
| West Bengal | 19,800 | 10.5 | 220 000 (132 000 to 254 000) |
The Union health ministry, however, dismissed the estimate as “speculative and misinformed”. The ministry said in a statement that the study provided estimates of all-cause excess mortality for a number of countries based on a mathematical modelling exercise.
“Such predictions are founded on certain set of inputs either based on real world scenarios, or approximations of those (which may vary in accuracy according to the technique used) inputs that are not available,” the ministry added.
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