Russia has failed in initial Ukraine war aims, will focus on south and east now: US

Offering its latest assessment of the war in Ukraine, the US has said that Russia has failed in its initial war aim of subjugating all of Ukraine and will now attempt to bring parts of the country under its rule – by repositioning its forces to concentrate its offensive in eastern and parts of southern Ukraine, seeking to capture territory, and then using any tactical success as a propaganda win to mask, discount or downplay its military failures.

This phase of the war, in US assessment, could well be “protracted” – and could extend to months or longer.

Speaking at the White House on Monday, Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser (NSA), who provided the assessment, also said that the West is looking to ramp up sanctions this week against Russia – particularly in light of civilian killings and discovery of mass graves in Bucha. He added that there will be three constants in the next phase of the war. “First, Russia will continue to use its military to try to conquer and occupy sovereign Ukrainian territory. Second, the Ukrainian military and people will continue to effectively and bravely defend their homeland. And third, the United States will stand by them for as long as it takes.”

Sullivan said that when Russia had launched the invasion, it aimed to seize Kiev, replace the Volodymyr Zelensky government, and take control of much, if not all, of Ukrainian territory – and it assumed it could do so swiftly and efficiently. “But Russia did not account for the strength of the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian people, or the amount or effectiveness of military assistance provided by the United States and its allies and partners.”

Russia, he said, was now “revising its war aims”, with all indications that Russia was seeking to now surround and overwhelm Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine. As the US sees it, this has involved Russia redeploying troops from northern Ukraine to the region around Donbas in the east and retreating from Kyiv to Belarus as Russia prepares to deploy additional tactical battalion groups to the east. “We assess Russia will focus on defeating the Ukrainian forces in the broader Luhansk and Donetsk provinces, which encompasses significantly more territory than Russian proxies already controlled before the new invasion began in late February.”

In the south, the US expects Russia to try to hold on to the city of Kherson “to enable their control of the waterflow to Crimea, and try to block Mykolaiv so that Ukrainian forces cannot proceed to retake Kherson”.

In the north, Russia will likely keep pressure on Kharkiv, Sullivan said. “During this renewed ground offensive in eastern Ukraine, Moscow will likely continue to launch air and missile strikes across the rest of the country to cause military and economic damage – and, frankly, to cause terror, including against cities like Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, and Lviv.”

Sullivan said that Russian forces still outnumber Ukrainian forces, and it will now focus on fewer lines of attacks, but this does not mean that Russia will succeed in the east. “The next stage of this conflict may very well be protracted. We should be under no illusions that Russia will adjust its tactics, which have included and will likely continue to include wanton and brazen attacks on civilian targets.”

While Russia would hope to use military pressure to find a political settlement, if it succeeded in gaining traction in the east, Sullivan warned that Moscow could again regenerate forces for additional goals.

“But no matter what happens over the coming weeks, it is clear that Russia will never be welcomed by the Ukrainian people. Instead, its gains will be temporary, as the brave Ukrainian people resist Russian occupation and carry on their fight for an independent, sovereign nation that they so richly deserve.”