[ad_1]
New Delhi: A normal monsoon is expected this year, the India Meteorological Department IMD) said on Thursday in its forecast about the June to September rain-bearing system often called the lifeblood of India’s economy.
Half of Indians depend on farm-derived income and nearly 40% of India’s net-sown area does not have access to irrigation. Similarly, half of India’s farm output comes from summer crops dependent on the monsoon. For good farm output, the rains have to be not just robust but also evenly spread across states.
IMD said rainfall of around 99% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with an error count of +/- 5%. is expected this year. The monsoon is considered normal if it is between 96-104% of the LPA.
This year, IMD is considering the LPA period between 1971 and 2020. Until last year, the LPA was being calculated from 1961 to 2010. The all-India annual normal rainfall will now be 1160.1 mm compared to 1176.9 mm earlier.
IMD said normal to above normal rainfall is expected in northern parts of the peninsula, central India, foothills of the Himalayas, and northwest India. Below normal rainfall is likely in parts of the northeast, northwest, and southern areas of the peninsula.
IMD’s director general (meteorology) Mrutyunjay Mohapatra cited last year’s data and added their forecast for the monsoon was largely correct, barring August. He added the monsoon was ultimately found to be deficient. “If observed rainfall in 2021 is looked at and it is compared to the normal forecast for June to September, then it was found to be largely correct,” he said.
IMD will issue an updated forecast for the monsoon in the last week of May. On Tuesday, private weather forecast agency Skymet also said there will be normal rainfall of around 98% of the LPA.
A normal monsoon is critical as global food prices have hit record highs due to a shortage amid the Ukraine conflict. A subpar monsoon cuts farm yields, output, and farm incomes increasing India’s dependence on food imports.
A robust monsoon will help put a lid on food inflation by increasing the domestic output of a variety of goods and commodities. Millions of farmers await the rainy season to begin summer sowing of key crops such as rice, sugar, cotton, coarse cereals, lentils, gram, and edible oils.
Domestic retail inflation quickened to a 17-month high of 6.95% in March driven by a sharp jump in food prices, official data released on Tuesday showed. Food prices jumped 7.68% in March, against a rise of 5.85% in February.
[ad_2]
Source link