New ‘allies’ on the block: BJP and MNS

Mumbai The recent camaraderie between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) over the loudspeaker controversy — right wing groups and leaders from these political parties have sought the removal of loudspeakers outside mosques; MNS chief Raj Thackeray declared that his cadre would play the Hanuman Chalisa outside mosques over loudspeakers if these demands aren’t met — indicates a political inflection that may well have long-lasting consequences for the state.

Experts are of the opinion that the unstated alliance could do in the municipal corporation elections slated for later this year what the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) did in 2019 Lok Sabha and assembly elections. At the time, Ambedkar (the oldest grandson of Dalit icon Dr B.R Ambedkar), did not have a pre-poll alliance with the Congress or the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and fought the Lok Sabha polls in alliance with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM). Later that same year, it contested all seats in the assembly elections, but without AIMIM.

The Congress and the NCP alleged that the VBA, which comprises smaller outfits representing various backward classes from the scheduled caste, vimukt and nomadic tribes categories split the secular votes for non-saffron parties such as their own, and thus benefited the BJP-Shiv Sena combine. The VBA bagged 6.92% votes of the total votes polled in the general election. This resulted in the defeat of at least seven Congress candidates including stalwarts like Ashok Chavan in Nanded and Sushil Kumar Shinde in Solapur. VBA candidates polled more votes than the winning margin of BJP candidates in some places. However, the VBA-AIMIM alliance only bagged one seat — in Aurangabad, AIMIM candidate Imtiaz Jaleel — in the Lok Sabha polls. Ambedkar claimed that his candidates got votes from both the major alliances: Congress-NCP alliance as well as BJP-Sena.

The two long-time saffron allies split ways soon after the assembly results were declared, and the Congress and NCP formed a Sena-led coalition called the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which is now in power.

According to political observers, the BJP hopes that the MNS — in its new avatar, with a saffron flag —will help split Sena’s votes in the local body polls at least in major cities such as Mumbai, Thane, Kalyan-Dombivli and Nashik.

As many as 15 municipal corporations and 27 district councils are slated to hold elections later this year. These polls are being seen as a litmus test for the general elections slated for 2024.

“Even if Raj Thackery could cut into 1 to 2% Sena vote, it could affect majorly in their prospects of winning power in civic bodies in major cities. In 2017 the gap of seats between Sena and BJP was just two seats, which means wresting power from the Sena is possible for the BJP. The BJP never plays communal cards openly, but one played by MNS may help it indirectly,” political analyst Prakash Akolkar said.

In 2009, barely three years after it was formed, the MNS won 13 seats in the assembly polls. The Raj Thackeray-led party bagged 5.17% votes of the total votes polled in the state. Months before that, it had bagged 2.06% of the total votes polled contesting only 11 seats in the Lok Sabha polls. Though it did not win any, it caused a dent in Shiv Sena’s vote share. However, the party later saw its vote share reducing significantly after Narendra Modi led the BJP to victory in 2014.

The BJP hopes for something similar to repeat itself.

“The MNS has presence in major cities. It could play a key role by eating into the Marathi votes in Sena citadels. Even if it affects Sena in eight to 10 seats in some of these cities, it will prove crucial in keeping Sena out of power. It is true that like VBA, the MNS too lost its shine, but it is likely that the Hindutva plank it had adopted recently will revive it. Some middle class Marathi-speaker Hindu votes, which otherwise go to Sena, could go to MNS if Raj’s Hindutva card works,” said a BJP leader who did not wish to be named.

On record, however, the BJP said that it is focused on strengthening its own party cadre. “BJP has been preparing to gain power in Assembly and local bodies on its own by strengthening the party at booth level and taking up issues of development. We are not thinking about whose gain will prove to be a loss for whom. In fact, in 2009, BJP and Sena could not form government because of the response the MNS received,” BJP spokesperson Keshav Upadhye said.

Tactical, not formal

A section of party leaders in the saffron party thinks that a tactical understanding with MNS would be more beneficial than a formal one, another BJP politician who did not wish to be named said.

“Firstly, the party does not want to share its success with anybody. Direct alliance with the MNS will prove to be odd as we will have to share seats with them and their chances of winning because of us rise. In the Sena strongholds like Dadar and Parel, the direct fight with the Sena will not help if the MNS is not there to cut into the votes. By taking MNS along we do not want to invite the wrath of north Indian votes. Most importantly, by keeping away from us formally, we can rake up issues like Hanuman Chalisa by using them as these issues are inconvenient for us as a ruling national party,” he said.

The second leader said the “true Hindutva” voter would not sway from Modi, and by extension, the BJP, so there was no question of any other Hindutva party taking away the vote. “MNS can only eat into Marathi votes which otherwise go to Sena. For instance, when we would fight Kalyan-Dombivali as an alliance, the Brahmin voter would vote for us and Agaris for Sena. Now with MNS as an additional player, there could be a split in Agari votes,” he said.

“There is a class of voters who neither wants the MVA nor the BJP and may find an option in MNS. Many workers and leaders, who till recently were planning to leave the party can now be seen charged up with Raj Thackeray’s new direction. Even if he gets a fraction of support from voters, it could dent the Shiv Sena vote in the first phase of local body polls in major cities. BJP will judge and gauge the pros and cons of the fallout before taking any decision of partnership. It would also prove counterproductive if Raj Thackeray got a response from the people more than they expected. The BJP leaders like Devendra Fadnavis may get overshadowed in that situation,” political analyst Hemant Desai said.

Word of caution

A tactical alliance may have other long-term consequences. A third senior BJP leader who spoke on the condition of anonymity said that the MNS could well be double-edged sword. “MNS could prove beneficial to us to a certain extent till it’s cutting into Sena votes. But what if Raj Thackeray gets more support due to his charisma and starts eating into our share of votes? A few state leaders in our party are wary of this possibility. Secondly, most of our state leaders are against helping any other regional party grow at the cost of BJP, especially after the experience we had with the Shiv Sena.”

The leader said that their attempt would be to compel Shiv Sena to take up its Hindutva agenda once again. “In the wake of MNS grabbing the Hindutva limelight, Sena will have to go back to its old political plank from which it deviated after forming the government with Congress and NCP. The rift between the ruling parties may help us in scoring politically,” he added.

An MNS leader said that though the party was being seen as team B of the BJP, the party still has the strength to revive itself. “Rajsaheb is targeted for changing his stand frequently, but he has not lost his charisma. We believe that his Hindutva stance will help in reviving the party. He will not hesitate in showing the BJP its place if the need be in the future,” he said, requesting anonymity.

On the record, however, the party is also playing down any possible partnership with the BJP. “We have been trying to strengthen our party by taking up the issues related to the people. We are not thinking about who will be benefited and at whose cost at this point. We have been facing charges of division of votes since 2009. Why should we be bothered about it?” Nitin Sardesai, MNS leader said.

Laxman Mane, noted Marathi writer who quit the VBA over his differences with Ambedkar said, “The MNS cannot play the role of VBA which polled 41 lakh votes in 2019 LS elections. The MNS is a lost force and does enjoy the support of middle-class voters unlike the VBA which had support across castes and communities. It is true that VBA’s success favoured BJP and some of our leaders were tacitly helping the BJP for it. Similarly, the MNS too is supported by the BJP, but the Raj Thackeray party would not succeed in cutting votes beyond a certain limit,” he said.