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Elections to the 68-member Himachal Pradesh assembly are due later this year, but the normally placid political climate of the hill state has lately been stirred by the Aam Aadmi Party’s ambition, fuelled by its resounding victory in Punjab, to disrupt the state’s entrenched bipolar polity dominated by the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress. While the Congress, bogged down by infighting, is yet to get its act together, the ruling BJP has lost no time in blunting Arvind Kejriwal’s challenge through smart political management as evident from the defection of the state’s frontline AAP leaders to its fold.
In the BJP’s scheme of things, winning Himachal is crucial for two reasons: One, to checkmate AAP’s national ambitions, and second, to keep up the momentum in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The stakes are also high because this is the home turf of BJP president JP Nadda, who spent this past week in the state, fine-tuning the party’s pre-poll strategy, and who cleared the air on change of guard, stating that chief minister Jai Ram Thakur would lead the party in the next election. Before that, though, Thakur will face his first test next month: the Shimla municipal polls which will be AAP’s debut election in the state.
In a wide-ranging interview with HT on Tuesday at his British-era official residence, Oakover, in Shimla, 57-year-old Thakur was poised and passionate by turns, as he assessed the AAP challenge, dwelt at length on his report card, and explained why his party would return to power. Edited excerpts:
Q: What is your sense on the current political landscape of Himachal Pradesh?
We are already into the election year. This has coincided with the BJP’s resounding victory last month in four state assembly elections, which is a big morale booster for our party cadres. Notably, the BJP was already in power in these states and again got the mandate. Usually, the ruling party is changed after five years. The BJP has bucked that trend. This has made us confident that if we can win again in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, we can do it here, too. Himachal is not difficult. It is a challenge, but can be done, and we will do it.
The Congress got a little boost with its victory in the four by-elections (one Lok Sabha and three assembly) in Himachal Pradesh last year. The results didn’t favour us. The Congress had its government in Punjab and was confident it would be able to win Uttarakhand. But it lost both the states badly. So, it will not be easy for the Congress in Himachal Pradesh. As far as the Aam Aadmi Party’s ambition in Himachal is concerned, I don’t see the party as a threat to the BJP because it neither has leadership nor organisational network on the ground.
Q: But, the AAP, buoyed by its emphatic triumph in Punjab, is making a determined foray into Himachal.
Their ( AAP’s) homework in Punjab started long ago. Before the 2022 assembly elections, they already had a sizeable number of MPs and MLAs. Over the past eight years, they built and strengthened their grassroots reach through an organisational structure which was stable. They benefitted from Punjab’s political circumstances and the people gave them a mandate as the third option. But Himachal is a different ballgame. Here, the basic character of politics has long been dominated by two parties, the BJP and the Congress. The third party has never found favour with people. The highest number of assembly seats that a third alliance ever got in Himachal was 17 (out of 68) when the Janata Dal fought the election in a pre-poll alliance with the BJP in 1980. Another brief experiment was by the Himachal Vikas Congress of Pandit Sukh Ram in 1998.
Q: Even Punjab had a two-party system for long but then the AAP broke their hegemony.
Our people’s thinking doesn’t favour the third option. By nature, they don’t waste their vote on an option other than the BJP and the Congress. They have never taken the third party seriously. The AAP tried to gain a foothold in Himachal, but they lack a stable leadership and cadre base. Look at how those who set up the AAP in Himachal deserted them. Their state president and head of the women’s cell have joined the BJP. That shows that their party is disintegrating even before the elections.
Q: Do you agree that the AAP is basing its ambition in Himachal on an apparently weak Congress and the anti-incumbency factor against the BJP?
Definitely, this is one aspect they have their eye on and want to take advantage of. Their assessment of the Congress is correct. The Congress no longer has a stalwart leadership that used to be its main vote catcher. Now the Congress is torn by factionalism. The AAP may benefit from it to a limited extent. For the BJP, the Kejriwal party is no challenge.
Q: Who do see your main challenger, the Congress or AAP?
Ultimately, our muqabala (contest) will be with the Congress. After all, the Congress is a rooted party and has been part of the state’s political fabric for long. But, it is weakened because it is facing a leadership crisis. They have been fighting to change the state Congress president and leader of opposition for three years. There is chaos in the Congress. It is mainly the Congress leaders who are shifting to the AAP camp. In coming days, the Congress leadership will further split and some of them will join the BJP, too.
Q: Why is winning the Himachal election is so crucial for the BJP this time?
The BJP has expanded its footprint across the country. Right now, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has its government in 18 states and 12 of them are BJP-ruled. Until a few years ago, in neighbouring Haryana, 90% of BJP candidates used to lose their deposits. Look at how it formed the government on its own in 2014 and then again came to power in 2019. If this can happen in Haryana, where the BJP never had a strong base, why can’t we do it in Himachal Pradesh where the BJP has formed the government so many times? That’s why Himachal is important. Also, it is crucial in view of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. We will definitely retain Himachal. The momentum is on our side.
Q: Your party suffered defeat in all four bypolls last year at the hands of the Congress. What lesson has your party learnt?
Virbhadra Singhji was the tallest leader of the Congress for many years. These bypolls came soon after he passed away. So sympathy was a big factor. Our cadres became overconfident. They thought, wrongly in retrospect, that the government was in power and the party will have it easy. There were gaps in the ground-level strategy, which have been addressed.
Q: What do you count as major pluses in your government’s report card so far?
I made a clean break from the politics of vendetta, which for long was perpetuated in a revengeful cycle of (new governments) filing criminal cases (against the old ones). That used to vitiate the political ecosystem and also hamper development. I was clear and determined from Day 1 not to waste my time and energy fixing rivals; I focused on development. For 20 years, there was a tradition of the opposition party filing a charge sheet against the ruling party . For the last three years, this charge sheet culture has come to an end because the opposition (Congress) realised the futility of doing this. We are close to completing our term and there has not been a single serious allegation of corruption against our leadership and the government. The Congress is issueless. We have tried to run politics and government in line with Himachal’s ethos as ‘dev bhoomi (Abode of gods)’. That is the big difference as compared to previous governments.
Q: How has Himachal benefitted from the ‘double engine’ government credo of the BJP?
All our projects that needed central approval and funds got full cooperation from the Centre. The state’s own funds alone cannot give momentum to development. Our state has a huge debt that makes us dependent on the Centre. For example, the tourism sector got ₹2,100-crore project funded by Asian Development Bank. In all, we got external aided projects worth ₹1,000 crore which is a big deal for a small state. Plus, ₹800 crore was sanctioned as special assistance . That helped launch and complete state-specific development projects. A big-ticket project on a greenfield international airport at Mandi is moving fast and we will soon sign a joint venture with the Airports Authority of India.
Q: How has your government mobilised internal resources with the state’s debt burden ballooning to ₹62,500 crore?
Almost all states are facing the debt burden. In the previous Congress regime, loan limits were exhausted. But our government has availed ₹5,000 crore less than the limit so far. We have to raise loans to repay the outstanding debt and interest. Managing finances became a bigger challenge in the past two years due to a Covid emergency. It severely impacted our economy. But we have not allowed it impact the critical development projects.
Q: Your party had promised a 70% job quota for locals in the private sector. Why have you not brought a legislation to ensure this, like Haryana has done?
We are doing that through a policy decision rather than a legal mechanism. We are closely monitoring its implementation and addressing the gaps. Some industries don’t follow this and in some places there are technical issues. We want industry to come to Himachal. Our focus on ease of doing business has shown results. Today, the state is at the 7th rank as compared to the 16th five years agoon the ease of doing business index.
Q: What will be your priorities in the next six months before the elections?
Bolstering public contact and time-bound completion of development projects are my focus areas. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was here on the fourth anniversary of our government and inaugurated projects worth ₹11,500 crore. Private investment of ₹28,000 crore is work in progress. Modiji will visit Himachal again in June or July for inaugurating the new AIIMS.
Q: Now that the BJP has announced you will lead the party in the assembly elections, do you feel the burden of expectations?
I am beholden to (party chief JP) Nadda ji for putting a full stop to the speculation (about a change of guard). Forming the BJP government in Himachal again is my biggest commitment and challenge, which I have accepted. I will do all that I can to live up to the expectations of Modi ji, Nadda ji and (home minister) Amit Shah.
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