Despite case spike, experts say it’s too early to bring back mask mandate

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Maharashtra saw a marginal rise in the number of patients testing positive for Covid-19 with 179 cases being reported on Thursday against a lower 162 on Wednesday, leading to chief minister Uddhav Thackeray urging people to take precautions. State officials said they were watching the situation and it would be too early to consider bringing back some restrictions, including the mask mandate.

“Corona seems to be rearing its head again. Hence, it is necessary to take precautions even today,” Thackeray said.

The surge was largely due to growing numbers in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, with Mumbai and Thane reporting 91 and 18 cases respectively. Pune city also saw 21 cases, while the number was eight for neighbouring Pimpri-Chinchwad. However, just one death caused by Covid-19 was reported in the state.

On Tuesday, Maharashtra reported 137 cases, while it was just 59 on Monday, largely due to lower testing on the weekend. Thursday was the second day when more than 90 cases were recorded in Mumbai. On Wednesday, 98 cases were reported and the daily positivity rate was 1.03%.

The daily positivity rate in the city on Thursday continued to be above 1% at 1.07%, indicating a rise compared to Wednesday.

While Delhi has made masks mandatory in view of a spike in cases, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has not taken any such decision.

Suresh Kakani, additional municipal commissioner, said no decision on making masks compulsory had been taken yet.

Municipal commissioner Iqbal Singh Chahal said, “The State Covid-19 task force may take a decision on this matter.”

Though BMC officials did not call it a wave, they attributed the case spike to zero restrictions and making wearing of masks optional.

In Mumbai, the active cases which were below 300 have increased to 450. However, the recovery and hospitalisation rates have not gone up significantly. The recovery rate is 98%, while the mortality rate is 1.84%. The hospitalisation figure is 0.05%.

Experts said there was no need to press the panic button.

Dr Shashank Joshi, member of state Covid-19 task force, said, “There is no concern as such for panicking. We need to be watchful, follow Covid appropriate behaviour, and wear masks in a closed environment or places having poor ventilation.”

State surveillance officer Dr Pradeep Awate said the weekly pattern of cases did not show a drastic rise in positivity, though the trend in Mumbai showed an upswing. “In Mumbai, the asymptomatic cases are around 95%… cases are not rising across the state but in the city. When a virus reaches an endemic stage, cases may rise or fall like the caseload of malaria or dengue, depending on the climate and events.”

Awate said unless a new variant of the virus was detected, there was little chance of a fourth wave setting in.

Dr Avinash Bhondwe, past president of Indian Medical Association, said the rise was restricted to around four to five states.

“We are gradually transitioning from a pandemic to the endemic stage,” he said, adding that a mere rise in numbers did not indicate a fourth wave as the growth was restricted to a few areas.

He, however, said some states like Maharashtra had done away with pandemic-related restrictions altogether, testing numbers had fallen, and contract tracing and vaccine coverage had not increased. “The virus is losing its virulence, and hence, even a fourth wave sets in, it may not be serious and burden the public health system,” Bhondwe said.

A section of experts believes that the situation in Maharashtra has not yet reached a stage to implement a mandate for compulsory mask use.

“There is absolutely no need to make masks compulsory unless a new, worrisome variant comes into circulation,” said epidemiologist and health systems expert Dr Chandrakant Lahariya.

“The missing link in the current government discourse is public awareness and health and science communication. The government should have held campaigns that nudge people to wear masks, especially those who are immunocompromised and need it,” he said.

Vellore-based virologist Dr T Jacob John said, “The government has not been very good with public health education, and when it comes to voluntary use of face masks, such education and awareness is crucial.”

Stating that the current spikes are not alarming, he said, “There is overcrowding everywhere as normal activities have resumed. We are bound to see some rise in numbers, but until the daily rise is not dramatic and a new concerning variant is not in circulation, we can stay calm. Personally, I would get worried when states start recording daily cases over 1,000.”

Maharashtra has been recording new cases in the range of 100 to 150 every day this week. Incidentally, single day cases in Delhi crossed 1,000 on Wednesday, prompting the government to bring back the mask mandate there.

“It is disappointing that many people are not wearing masks voluntarily. I still feel more than the compulsory use of masks, governments should focus on telling people its advantages, so that they choose masks on their own,” John said.

Pulmonologist and epidemiologist Dr Lancelot Pinto from Mumbai’s PD Hinduja Hospital said masks could be made mandatory in closed spaces such as cinema halls, airplanes etc. “In outdoor spaces, the use of masks should be purely driven by public education and should continue to be voluntary.”

“There is no need to reintroduce the mask mandate unless we see a sudden rise in hospitalisation without any explanation. I think we must focus on public education so that vulnerable people choose to wear masks voluntarily,” Pinto said.

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