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The BJP is set to retain power in Uttar Pradesh by a large margin and the Aam Aadmi Party is set to form the government in Punjab, according to exit polls released Monday after Assembly elections in five states concluded. Goa, Uttarakhand, and Manipur joined UP and Punjab in holding Assembly elections over the last two months. The BJP fighting to retain four states and the Congress is hoping to hold on to Punjab – one of a few it still rules outright.
Full Coverage: 2022 Assembly Elections Exit Poll Results
According to the Republic P-Marq exit poll for UP, the ruling BJP will win 240 of 403 seats – well over the halfway mark of 202, although it is significantly lower than the 312 it won in the 2017 election.
Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party will be the main opposition with 140 seats.
The Congress, for whom Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and other senior leaders, including Rahul Gandhi, campaigned fiercely, is set to disappoint in UP again, with just four seats expected. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party will get 17 seats.
Meanwhile, in Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party is set to spring a massive shock and form the government, taking advantage of a feud within the ruling Congress that drove out former chief minister Amarinder Singh.
AAP is set to win big by each of four exit polls – India Today-Axis My India says it will win 76-90 of 117 seats in the Assembly and ABP News-CVoter says 51-61.
The biggest predicted wins come from News24-Today’s Chanakya, which gives 89-111 seats to the AAP. Times Now-Veto gives 70 and Republic P Marq 62-70.
The Congress, which expected to do well under chief minister Charanjit Channi, and the Akali Dal are neck-and-neck for the tag of main opposition in the state. The BJP, which has joined hands with Amarinder Singh’s new party – Punjab Lok Congress – will be a distant third.
The BJP is also set to retain power in Uttarakhand, with India Today-Axis My India, News24-Today’s Chanakya and Times Now-Veto all giving it a win over the Congress. India Today-Axis My India gives it 36-46 seats, News24-Today’s Chanakya 43 and Times Now-Veto 37.
However, ABP News-CVoter and Republic P-Marq are leaning the other way, with the former giving the Congress 32-38 seats in the 70-member Assembly and the latter 33-38.
The AAP is not expected to repeat its Punjab heroics here.
In Goa, both India Today-Axis My India and Republic P-Marq predict a tight race between the ruling BJP and the Congress, with neither expected to win a majority outright.
According to the former, the BJP will win 14-18 seats and the Congress 15-20. Republic says BJP and the Congress will win 13-17 seats each. Times Now-Veto gives the BJP 14 and the Congress 16. The majority mark in the 40-member assembly is 21, meaning it will likely be a hung house.
In Manipur, the Republic P-Marq exit poll gives the ruling BJP and its allies a comfortable win, awarding it 27-31 of the 60 seats. While this is marginally short of the majority of 31, the opposition MPSA alliance is expected to win only 11-17 seats and the NPP 6-10, giving the ruling party plenty of wriggle room to form post-poll deals.
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